For years many of us heard the comforting version: a little red wine is good for the heart. A new study, published in October 2026 in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, went looking for that benefit. It didn't find it.
Who did it, and how
The study was commissioned by the US federal government to help write the national dietary guidelines. The team, led by Kevin Shield of the University of Toronto, with co-author Timothy Naimi of the University of Victoria, read through more than 7,200 scientific publications about illnesses and injuries linked to alcohol. They estimated the risk for each condition, then combined it with big national health data to work out what different drinking levels do over a whole lifetime.
It's not one new experiment on a group of volunteers. It's a giant review of existing evidence, written by 24 researchers, focused on how much Americans drink over a lifetime. That's why the results are about odds across millions of people, not a test you can take.
The number everyone is quoting
At an average of 14 drinks a week, two a day, the lifetime risk of dying from an alcohol-caused condition is about 1 in 25. Up to 7 drinks a week, the increase in risk was small for most conditions. Above one drink a day, for both men and women, the risks start climbing more clearly.
"Even low levels of alcohol use come with health risks," Shield said. "And that risk continues to increase the more someone drinks".
What alcohol actually does in the body
This is where the 1 in 25 comes from. In the body, alcohol is broken down into a substance called acetaldehyde, which can damage cells and their DNA. The study's list of outcomes reads like a map of where alcohol travels: cancers of the mouth, the oesophagus (the food pipe) and the breast, heart and blood vessel disease, liver disease, and injuries. Scientists are also looking at a possible link with pancreatic cancer, but that needs more research.
And the heart benefit?
Here's the nuance. At low levels, alcohol may be linked to slightly less ischaemic heart disease and stroke. But when the team added everything up, cancers included, there was no overall protective effect at any level. "Those potential benefits are outweighed by the risks even at 7 drinks per week," Shield said. So the red wine is still allowed to be a pleasure. It just isn't medicine.
The bit of drama
The current US guidelines simply say "limit alcoholic beverages", with no number. The old ones said no more than two a day for men and one for women. In an editorial next to the study, Robert Vincent, a former official at the US addiction and mental health agency, wrote: "Despite the study's adherence to its mandate, its findings were sidelined". In other words: the government ordered the research, then didn't put the numbers in.
What it means for you
These are averages for a whole population, not a prediction for you personally. Your genes, your health and how you drink all matter. "We can't assume that means one person's individual health risk is the same," Shield said.
But the direction is clear: less is better. If two glasses a night have quietly become a habit, try alcohol-free days, smaller glasses, or swapping one round for sparkling water. Cheers still works with water. The glass doesn't know the difference.