War is terrible for almost everyone. Then there's the accounting department at a US refinery.
The numbers
An estimate published by The New York Times, and reported by Al Jazeera, puts the profits of 51 large US oil and gas companies at more than $130bn from April to September. The same six months of 2025 brought in less than $47bn. Al Jazeera calls the estimate conservative.
Refiners did especially well. Valero's third-quarter profit rose more than sixfold, to $6.83bn. Phillips 66 reported its best quarter ever: $5.62bn, up from $133m a year earlier. That's the sort of jump you'd normally double-check for a typo.
The other side of the pump
Brown University's Climate Solutions Lab estimates that Americans have spent an extra $150bn on petrol and diesel since the war began on 28 February, or more than $1,150 per household. The two figures cover different periods and aren't a simple transfer from one pocket to another. They do make an uncomfortable pair.
Why US firms win
Analysts told Al Jazeera that producers gain from higher crude prices, while refiners gain from tight supplies of diesel and other fuels. Damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions all add to the shortages. US sites are far from the fighting. Gulf producers, by contrast, have faced physical damage and higher costs.
Oil companies shouldn't book the yacht just yet. Analyst Geoffrey Miller warned that long-term high prices could slow growth, even help cause a recession, and speed the move to renewables. Rabobank's Florence Schmit expects consumers to keep feeling high prices next year unless governments step in.